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World economy breaks down cotton is entered drop passageway

来源: 作者:Stand originally 时间:2009-01-06 Tag: 点击:
Is cotton basic is the cover effective still? Blame also, the near future, be in probably henceforth 6 months, perhaps arrive at least before Feburary, main area develops cotton no longer action. After Feburary, customer is the crisis, debt crisis, current crisis, other perhaps to credit what does the reaction of farfetched crisis decide whether does main area develop cotton action. Consumer is crucial factor. But, today, in America, Europe, Asia, Australia and Africa, all consumer worry about their individual fortune more, fear they are mixed for a long time short-term purchasing power. The health of the house property that they hope to protect their, car and domesticity reachs stability, these are far heavier than other issue good is much. New clothes, bath towel, sheet and other articles for daily use, be able to bear or endure things and blame are durable article, will be faced with demand to fall greatly condition.

Accordingly, cotton is basic face, besides consumptive demand inadequacy, to the market no longer charming. Demand is crucial, in a few months, cotton will lose the leverage in demand. The United States is an enormous economic engine, once pulled move global cotton to consume. In addition, chinese consumer has become the fastest to pily demand growth customer on the world. The influence that Chinese consumer gets may be less than western consumer, but the production that Chinese clever development rises and export machine will be faced with obtain employment to decrease and speed of oneself economy progress puts delay. From since entering new chiliad, china is annual economic growth all achieves two digit word, this is added fast maintain 2008. But, 2009, chinese growth anticipates decelerate under 8 % , grow still driving, but speed has put delay greatly.

We say before a few months, slowdown of all commodity demand, because Beijing Olympic Games concludes, the plan of 5 years of construction with top rate of the development on global history and infrastructure construction ended. These factors are major to commodity market sense, but with credit and capital market break down did not concern, credit and capital market break down world of be a burden on is immersed in the crisis, the suffering of this economy battle line is fought continue 5 years at least longer even.

Corn loss 2008 all going up, soja loss 2008 all going up, return a loss at the same time part 2007 go up, pily loss mixed 2007 2008 go up. Accordingly, look from agricultural angle, pily production is current very low to the appeal of the farmer. The main problem that the world faces now is capital current / credit, cotton cultivates need loan, loan risk brings about a lot of people to think, they make the decision that grew cotton 2009 very hard.

Same, the market needs 6 - 18 months ability finds basis. Meanwhile, price quotations will be around swings nevertheless just. According to American Ministry of Agriculture the supply and demand of Zhou Sifa cloth reports, inventory of world period end anticipates relatively on the month moves 3 million packets on appraise beforehand, it is 55.5 million packets now. In addition, american exit anticipates reduce 1.5 million packets, 2008 - 9 years exit anticipates have 13 million packets only.
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